ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 15 day, 0.25 degree validation report

This dataset validation report plots a sample of values from the ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 15 day, 0.25 degree dataset over time and across space, comparing where possible to a previously validated reference dataset. It also reports the quantity of missing values and their associated timestamps. These analyses are one layer of a multi-layered dataset validation process we perform at dynamical.org and also provide users a preview of the dataset contents.

Report generation start time: 2026-05-16T02:04:22 UTC

Summary

What looks good

• Geometry and coordinates are correct on every variable. North at top, east on right, longitude in [-180, +180), coastlines and continents at expected locations. Verified across all 19 variables.
• All values are physically plausible and unit conventions correct. Spot checks: temperature_2m globally -55 to +45 °C; surface pressure 48-106 kPa (low at Himalayas/Andes); MSL pressure 95-105 kPa; 10m wind up to ~29 m/s; wind gust up to 43 m/s; precipitation rate 0-0.012 kg m⁻² s⁻¹; SW radiation 0-1030 W m⁻²; LW radiation 75-468 W m⁻²; geopotential heights match expected magnitudes at each pressure level (~5500m at 500hPa, ~1400m at 850hPa, ~700m at 925hPa).
• Histograms align well with the reference for every shared variable (temperature_2m, pressure_surface, pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level, precipitation_surface, both SW and LW radiation, both wind u and v at 10m and 100m, geopotential_height_500hpa).
• Diurnal cycles are in phase with the reference (SW radiation peaks at the same UTC times at both points — no time-coordinate or UTC/local bug).
• All nulls are explained:
  • categorical_precipitation_type_surface and wind_gust_10m: structurally null before 2024-11-13, matching date_available.
  • total_cloud_cover_atmosphere: structurally null before 2025-11-21, matching date_available.
  • All other variables: zero nulls across the full archive.
• No quantization banding, no sentinel values, no flipped maps, no flatlines or spurious spikes observed in any per-variable plot.
• Accumulated/averaged variables (precipitation, both radiations, wind_gust) correctly omit the analysis-step NaN from null counts.

Datasets

Run parameters

• Validation dataset type: forecast
• Validation time range: init_time 2024-04-01T00:00 → 2026-05-15T00:00
• Reference time range: time 2000-01-01T00:00 → 2026-05-15T18:00
• Time scope: full dataset

Missing values

• Point 1: lat=62.7500, lon=-153.0000
• Point 2: lat=-49.7500, lon=147.7500

Spatial and distribution

• Spatial comparison time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• Ensemble member: 46

Time series

• Point 1: lat=62.7500, lon=-153.0000
• Point 2: lat=-49.7500, lon=147.7500
• Timeseries period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00
• Ensemble member: 46

Combined plots

All variables combined into a single plot for each type of analysis.

• Missing values: combined_nulls.png
• Spatial and distributions: combined_spatial.png
• Time series: combined_temporal.png

Missing timestamps

Full list: missing_timestamps.txt

Per-variable details

categorical_precipitation_type_surface

Metadata

• units: 1
• long_name: Precipitation type
• short_name: ptype
• standard_name: n/a
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_categorical_precipitation_type_surface.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=0, mean=1.899, max=12
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_categorical_precipitation_type_surface.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=0, mean=2.482, max=6
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=0, mean=0.6588, max=1
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 979710/3359625 — 226 missing (first: 2024-04-01T00:00:00, 2024-04-02T00:00:00, 2024-04-03T00:00:00 … last: 2024-11-10T00:00:00, 2024-11-11T00:00:00, 2024-11-12T00:00:00)
• P2 nulls: 979710/3359625 — 226 missing (first: 2024-04-01T00:00:00, 2024-04-02T00:00:00, 2024-04-03T00:00:00 … last: 2024-11-10T00:00:00, 2024-11-11T00:00:00, 2024-11-12T00:00:00)

dew_point_temperature_2m

Metadata

• units: degree_Celsius
• long_name: 2 metre dewpoint temperature
• short_name: 2d
• standard_name: dew_point_temperature
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_dew_point_temperature_2m.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=-59, mean=-0.3165, max=30.62
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_dew_point_temperature_2m.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=-24.88, mean=-13.23, max=-3.688
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=2.125, mean=7.227, max=11.19
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

downward_long_wave_radiation_flux_surface

Metadata

• units: W m-2
• long_name: Surface downward long-wave radiation flux
• short_name: sdlwrf
• standard_name: surface_downwelling_longwave_flux_in_air
• step_type: avg

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_downward_long_wave_radiation_flux_surface.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=75, mean=299.1, max=468
• reference: min=76, mean=289.4, max=466

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_downward_long_wave_radiation_flux_surface.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=159, mean=222.2, max=300
• reference: min=160, mean=223.1, max=302

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=282, mean=341.1, max=374
• reference: min=251, mean=308.7, max=364

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3320100 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3320100 — none

downward_short_wave_radiation_flux_surface

Metadata

• units: W m-2
• long_name: Surface downward short-wave radiation flux
• short_name: sdswrf
• standard_name: surface_downwelling_shortwave_flux_in_air
• step_type: avg

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_downward_short_wave_radiation_flux_surface.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=0, mean=146.4, max=1032
• reference: min=0, mean=164.7, max=1040

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_downward_short_wave_radiation_flux_surface.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=0, mean=147.1, max=548
• reference: min=0, mean=166.5, max=484

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=0, mean=73.85, max=370
• reference: min=0, mean=79.73, max=520

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3320100 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3320100 — none

geopotential_height_500hpa

Metadata

• units: m
• long_name: Geopotential height
• short_name: gh
• standard_name: geopotential_height
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_geopotential_height_500hpa.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=4816, mean=5502, max=5950
• reference: min=0, mean=5493, max=5942

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_geopotential_height_500hpa.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=5286, mean=5377, max=5510
• reference: min=5250, mean=5360, max=5540

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=5320, mean=5566, max=5684
• reference: min=5140, mean=5497, max=5708

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

geopotential_height_850hpa

Metadata

• units: m
• long_name: Geopotential height
• short_name: gh
• standard_name: geopotential_height
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_geopotential_height_850hpa.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=868.2, mean=1396, max=1668
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_geopotential_height_850hpa.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=1352, mean=1433, max=1528
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=1318, mean=1425, max=1518
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

geopotential_height_925hpa

Metadata

• units: m
• long_name: Geopotential height
• short_name: gh
• standard_name: geopotential_height
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_geopotential_height_925hpa.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=197.1, mean=711.7, max=998.2
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_geopotential_height_925hpa.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=683, mean=774.2, max=872.2
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=627.5, mean=737.5, max=827
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

precipitation_surface

Metadata

• units: kg m-2 s-1
• long_name: Precipitation rate
• short_name: prate
• standard_name: precipitation_flux
• step_type: avg

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_precipitation_surface.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=0, mean=3.448e-05, max=0.01178
• reference: min=0, mean=2.467e-05, max=0.006256

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_precipitation_surface.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=0, mean=1.645e-05, max=0.0002632
• reference: min=0, mean=4.131e-06, max=0.0001073

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=0, mean=4.123e-05, max=0.0002651
• reference: min=0, mean=2.53e-05, max=0.00037

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3320100 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3320100 — none

pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level

Metadata

• units: Pa
• long_name: Pressure reduced to MSL
• short_name: prmsl
• standard_name: air_pressure_at_mean_sea_level
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=9.478e+04, mean=1.009e+05, max=1.052e+05
• reference: min=9.491e+04, mean=1.01e+05, max=1.055e+05

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=1.007e+05, mean=1.02e+05, max=1.034e+05
• reference: min=1.009e+05, mean=1.019e+05, max=1.032e+05

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=9.974e+04, mean=1.011e+05, max=1.023e+05
• reference: min=9.824e+04, mean=1.008e+05, max=1.028e+05

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

pressure_surface

Metadata

• units: Pa
• long_name: Surface pressure
• short_name: sp
• standard_name: surface_air_pressure
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_pressure_surface.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=4.795e+04, mean=9.665e+04, max=1.057e+05
• reference: min=4.931e+04, mean=9.663e+04, max=1.048e+05

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_pressure_surface.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=9.178e+04, mean=9.287e+04, max=9.405e+04
• reference: min=9.184e+04, mean=9.281e+04, max=9.382e+04

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=9.974e+04, mean=1.011e+05, max=1.023e+05
• reference: min=9.83e+04, mean=1.008e+05, max=1.028e+05

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

temperature_2m

Metadata

• units: degree_Celsius
• long_name: 2 metre temperature
• short_name: 2t
• standard_name: air_temperature
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_temperature_2m.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=-55.25, mean=4.067, max=45
• reference: min=-49.75, mean=3.908, max=44.5

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_temperature_2m.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=-17.62, mean=-7.116, max=1.609
• reference: min=-19, mean=-7.348, max=0.3164

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=7.844, mean=10.15, max=12.88
• reference: min=7.188, mean=9.426, max=12.69

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

temperature_850hpa

Metadata

• units: degree_Celsius
• long_name: Temperature
• short_name: t
• standard_name: air_temperature
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_temperature_850hpa.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=-35.5, mean=0.7232, max=29.38
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_temperature_850hpa.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=-13.5, mean=-8.783, max=-1.508
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=-4.375, mean=2.027, max=11.44
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

temperature_925hpa

Metadata

• units: degree_Celsius
• long_name: Temperature
• short_name: t
• standard_name: air_temperature
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_temperature_925hpa.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=-35.75, mean=3.502, max=37
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_temperature_925hpa.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=-12.62, mean=-5.357, max=0.1611
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=0.5547, mean=5.524, max=13.94
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

total_cloud_cover_atmosphere

Metadata

• units: percent
• long_name: Total cloud cover
• short_name: tcc
• standard_name: cloud_area_fraction
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_total_cloud_cover_atmosphere.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=NaN, mean=NaN, max=NaN
• reference: min=0, mean=61.92, max=100

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_total_cloud_cover_atmosphere.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=0, mean=52.28, max=100
• reference: min=0, mean=69.97, max=100

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=36, mean=93.32, max=100
• reference: min=0, mean=76.7, max=100

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 2596665/3359625 — 599 missing (first: 2024-04-01T00:00:00, 2024-04-02T00:00:00, 2024-04-03T00:00:00 … last: 2025-11-18T00:00:00, 2025-11-19T00:00:00, 2025-11-20T00:00:00)
• P2 nulls: 2596665/3359625 — 599 missing (first: 2024-04-01T00:00:00, 2024-04-02T00:00:00, 2024-04-03T00:00:00 … last: 2025-11-18T00:00:00, 2025-11-19T00:00:00, 2025-11-20T00:00:00)

wind_gust_10m

Metadata

• units: m s-1
• long_name: Maximum 10 metre wind gust since previous post-processing
• short_name: 10fg
• standard_name: wind_speed_of_gust
• step_type: max

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_wind_gust_10m.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=0.1621, mean=9.342, max=43
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_wind_gust_10m.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=0.8359, mean=6.787, max=20
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=4.125, mean=14.77, max=23.75
• reference: variable not available in reference dataset

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 968184/3320100 — 226 missing (first: 2024-04-01T00:00:00, 2024-04-02T00:00:00, 2024-04-03T00:00:00 … last: 2024-11-10T00:00:00, 2024-11-11T00:00:00, 2024-11-12T00:00:00)
• P2 nulls: 968184/3320100 — 226 missing (first: 2024-04-01T00:00:00, 2024-04-02T00:00:00, 2024-04-03T00:00:00 … last: 2024-11-10T00:00:00, 2024-11-11T00:00:00, 2024-11-12T00:00:00)

wind_u_100m

Metadata

• units: m s-1
• long_name: 100 metre U wind component
• short_name: 100u
• standard_name: eastward_wind
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_wind_u_100m.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=-33, mean=-0.3196, max=32.5
• reference: min=-30.75, mean=-0.1359, max=34

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_wind_u_100m.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=-10, mean=-1.027, max=6.562
• reference: min=-3.906, mean=-1.043, max=3.719

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=-8.625, mean=9.172, max=20
• reference: min=-7.5, mean=7.534, max=20

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

wind_u_10m

Metadata

• units: m s-1
• long_name: 10 metre U wind component
• short_name: 10u
• standard_name: eastward_wind
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_wind_u_10m.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=-26.5, mean=-0.312, max=28.75
• reference: min=-26, mean=-0.1602, max=27.5

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_wind_u_10m.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=-6.188, mean=-0.8472, max=4.562
• reference: min=-3.594, mean=-0.8461, max=2.25

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=-7.25, mean=7.196, max=17.25
• reference: min=-6.625, mean=6.148, max=15.38

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

wind_v_100m

Metadata

• units: m s-1
• long_name: 100 metre V wind component
• short_name: 100v
• standard_name: northward_wind
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_wind_v_100m.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=-33.5, mean=-0.1796, max=32
• reference: min=-33, mean=-0.2466, max=30.25

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_wind_v_100m.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=-3.188, mean=2.225, max=12.88
• reference: min=-2.719, mean=-0.07724, max=2.906

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=-20.25, mean=-4.746, max=7.188
• reference: min=-18.75, mean=-4.727, max=10.62

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none

wind_v_10m

Metadata

• units: m s-1
• long_name: 10 metre V wind component
• short_name: 10v
• standard_name: northward_wind
• step_type: instant

Spatial comparison

• plot: spatial_wind_v_10m.png
• time: init=2025-03-05T00:00, lead=3h (reference at 2025-03-05T03:00)
• validation: min=-28.5, mean=-0.1665, max=27.5
• reference: min=-27.25, mean=-0.2112, max=25.75

Temporal comparison

• plot: temporal_wind_v_10m.png
• period: Forecast init_time: 2026-03-27T00:00

P1 (lat=62.75, lon=-153.00):

• validation: min=-1.625, mean=1.439, max=7.5
• reference: min=-2.5, mean=0.4872, max=3.688

P2 (lat=-49.75, lon=147.75):

• validation: min=-13.25, mean=-3.311, max=5.875
• reference: min=-15, mean=-3.782, max=9.5

Nulls

• P1 nulls: 0/3359625 — none
• P2 nulls: 0/3359625 — none